Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 0.014282 0.016190 0.018264 0.020687 0.023440 0.026475 0.030075
2025-04-20 0.011506 0.014177 0.017336 0.021350 0.026325 0.032299 0.040032
2025-04-27 0.009961 0.012987 0.016774 0.021874 0.028577 0.037114 0.048852
2025-05-04 0.008931 0.012195 0.016476 0.022518 0.030857 0.042006 0.058119
2025-05-11 0.007865 0.011172 0.015689 0.022328 0.031885 0.045209 0.065318
2025-05-18 0.007077 0.010416 0.015141 0.022345 0.033113 0.048705 0.073172
2025-05-25 0.006332 0.009623 0.014434 0.022016 0.033744 0.051321 0.079904
2025-06-01 0.005872 0.009194 0.014200 0.022338 0.035336 0.055457 0.089291
2025-06-08 0.005363 0.008632 0.013699 0.022175 0.036123 0.058372 0.096971
2025-06-15 0.005092 0.008416 0.013707 0.022806 0.038213 0.063508 0.108731
2025-06-22 0.004574 0.007744 0.012916 0.022039 0.037896 0.064633 0.113776
2025-06-29 0.004205 0.007287 0.012435 0.021738 0.038323 0.067012 0.121172
2025-07-06 0.003778 0.006698 0.011690 0.020931 0.037825 0.067798 0.125904
2025-07-13 0.003634 0.006595 0.011778 0.021610 0.040049 0.073622 0.140496
2025-07-20 0.003480 0.006457 0.011788 0.022140 0.042033 0.079167 0.155090
2025-07-27 0.003356 0.006361 0.011864 0.022792 0.044299 0.085425 0.171671
2025-08-03 0.003129 0.006053 0.011516 0.022600 0.044904 0.088536 0.182250
2025-08-10 0.002950 0.005819 0.011288 0.022617 0.045917 0.092518 0.194982
2025-08-17 0.002745 0.005517 0.010903 0.022284 0.046183 0.095009 0.204803
2025-08-24 0.002631 0.005387 0.010845 0.022610 0.047835 0.100480 0.221553
2025-08-31 0.002474 0.005156 0.010565 0.022445 0.048429 0.103770 0.233812
2025-09-07 0.002408 0.005110 0.010660 0.023084 0.050810 0.111090 0.255865
2025-09-14 0.002214 0.004775 0.010123 0.022307 0.049999 0.111344 0.261640